Weekend Straw Poll Roundup
Published April 15th, 2007 in Straw polls.
This weekend we saw the first in a series of big straw polls across the state. Our numbers show that 527 GOP activists voted.
We can argue all day about the importance of straw polls and whether or not they truly mean anything, but for now we will just report the numbers.Â
We can deduce many different things from these numbers, but four stats jump out at us:
- Romney is climbing within the GOP base and he is picking up support in past McCain strongholds including Charleston & Horry.
- McCain is dropping within the GOP base.
- The GOP base isn’t as wild about Giuliani as public polls show the ordinary voters are.
- Although the news wants everyone to believe that the GOP base is unsatisfied with its slate of candidates, these straw polls show otherwise. Only 11% voted for Gingrich or Fred Thompson.
TOTAL – 527 voters
Romney – 190 - 36.05%
McCain – 106 - 20.11%
Giuliani – 63 - 11.95%
Huckabee – 37 - 7.02%
F Thompson – 32 - 6.07%
Brownback – 30 - 5.69%
Hunter – 28 - 5.31%
Gingrich – 23 - 4.36%
Paul – 4 - 0.76%
Tancredo – 4 - 0.76%
T Thompson – 2 - 0.38%
Gilmore – 2 - 0.38%
Cox – 2 - 0.38%
Sanford – 2 - 0.38%
Rice – 2 - 0.38%
Folks, we may be seeing a turning point here. Could it be that April 2007 marked the shift of power to Romney?
While there were 527 votes cast last weekend, add in all the GOP conventions so far and you have well over 800 votes and the trend holds with Romney in the mid 30’s and McCain around 20%.
It appears that not only does Romney have the ability to raise money, but he also is extremely successful with the activists (who have had the chance to get to know him). As he becomes better known, his numbers will continue to rise!
The rest of this month should be interesting–especially next week with Greenville & Spartanburg counties.
If these numbers hold all the way until the primary, Romney will walk away with a 30 percent plurality: Hardly a momentum-builder. He’ll need to win a majority in the state to come away with a convincing result. In order to do that, he’ll need to put all that money he’s raised to good use. If John McCain’s experience in South Carolina in 2000 is any predictor of future events, he may not even be able to count on that. All it takes is a whisper campaign about his religion or left-leaning comments during prior campaigns in Massachusetts to hamper his chances.
Don’t be ridiculous! The whisper campaign is in full swing. And you know what…it is turning people off big time. In fact it may be just the way he ends up winning. The precious electorate in SC leading the nation in rejecting dirty politics. Go Mitt!