We have been thinking about the McCain strategy to avoid the South Carolina GOP county conventions ever since the first article ran a few days ago.  At first, the thought was, OK he is the presumptive front runner, perhaps there is nothing to win but all to lose if he shows up.  After all, he could get questioned by hostile activists or lose a straw poll despite being live and in the flesh.

Then we began to see the straw polls roll in, and despite that fact that these polls do not determine the outcome of of the Primary, they are a good way to take the temperature of the base.  These are the people who are going to mobilize to make the calls, put up signs, and help spread the word.  So far, his absence seems to have been noticed by the base and it has not been good.

But wait, there is more.  Tonight we saw an article come across the AP wire talking about McCain’s decision to skip the conventions and we thought it must have been a re-run.  However, upon reading the article we found out that McCain may not only be in danger of losing the activists, he may very well be losing the list of elected officials who stuck their neck out to endorse him.  From the AP:

“It sends a signal he’s taking them for granted and that’s not a good signal,” said Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard.

After winning early endorsements from statewide and Statehouse Republicans, McCain may have become overconfident, Woodard said. “I think it is real dangerous.”

State Rep. Thad Viers of Myrtle Beach was one of 40 Statehouse Republicans who earlier this year endorsed McCain. But Saturday, Viers was at the Horry County GOP convention wondering where McCain was and listening to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“He gave a great Reaganesque speech. I liked him so much I voted for him in the straw poll,” Viers said.

Viers hasn’t yet decided to withdraw his support for McCain, but will if McCain’s doesn’t steer away from an immigration law compromise he’s been developing with Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass.

McCain has had a rough couple of weeks, but it has been nothing that any campaign couldn’t overcome.  However, it appears that some permanent damage could be done if he doesn’t drop this strategery and start showing up to explain to voters exactly they should vote for him and elected officials should stick with him.

Our guess is that we will start seeing some more defections if things keep going this way.

From the AP:

By JIM DAVENPORT
Associated Press Writer
Published April 17, 2007

Arizona Sen. John McCain is bypassing South Carolina county conventions and straw polls where the state’s most fervent GOP activists gather to meet presidential hopefuls.

They’re the same people who put up campaign signs and make get-out-the-vote calls that influence this early voting state’s primaries. But McCain’s camp says his calendar precludes him from attending, and that the candidate prefers to speak to smaller crowds for longer times than conventions allow.

“In South Carolina, Sen. McCain would prefer a format like a town hall meeting where he has an hour or an hour and half for personal, intimate access with voters who can ask him straight questions and expect straight answers,” B.J. Boling, McCain’s South Carolina spokesman, said Tuesday, a day before the candidate was to bring his Straight Talk Express bus to Murrells Inlet, Summerville and Charleston.

Boling said McCain will send stand-ins to conventions as he concentrates on events like Wednesday’s appearances at VFW posts.

But bypassing the conventions means McCain runs the risk of riling the same group of GOP activists that cost him the 2000 presidential primary here against then-Texas Gov. George Bush.

“It sends a signal he’s taking them for granted and that’s not a good signal,” said Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard.

After winning early endorsements from statewide and Statehouse Republicans, McCain may have become overconfident, Woodard said. “I think it is real dangerous.”

State Rep. Thad Viers of Myrtle Beach was one of 40 Statehouse Republicans who earlier this year endorsed McCain. But Saturday, Viers was at the Horry County GOP convention wondering where McCain was and listening to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“He gave a great Reaganesque speech. I liked him so much I voted for him in the straw poll,” Viers said.

Viers hasn’t yet decided to withdraw his support for McCain, but will if McCain’s doesn’t steer away from an immigration law compromise he’s been developing with Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass.

“I think he is taking people for granted,” Viers said. “You can’t assume that people are voting for you.”

McCain is putting some effort into county conventions. His campaign has contacted delegates with mailings, staffed tables at the events and sent surrogates to speak for him. The stand-ins include former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, who is to speak for McCain at conventions in Spartanburg, Laurens and Richland counties this weekend.

“Sen. McCain feels like Gov. Keating conveys his message of commonsense conservatism,” Boling said.

Keating, who had been considering a presidential bid, joined former Texas Sen. Phil Gramm in endorsing McCain in February during a South Carolina campaign stop.

But the stand-in strategy won’t work everywhere. For instance, at Saturday’s Greenville County GOP convention, surrogates can’t address the convention, said Wendy Nanney, the county chairwoman.

“We didn’t want proxies. We really wanted the candidates themselves in order for the delegates to meet them,” she said.

McCain’s absences already have been felt. Romney, a convention regular, has won straw polls in three of the state’s largest Republican counties - Charleston, Horry and York - beating out both McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

“I think South Carolinians are accustomed to candidates attending as many conventions as they can,” Cyndi Mosteller, who wrapped up her term Friday as chairwoman of the Charleston County GOP.

Romney spoke at the Charleston convention Friday and the poll “was impacted by the fact that Romney was present and Giuliani and McCain were not,” Mosteller said.

Boling said McCain’s campaign doesn’t put much stock in straw polls, and is instead focusing on building a support network in part by donating money to local GOP groups and candidates. He said the campaign made $180,000 in donations before the November election.

Political analysts said it makes sense for McCain to concentrate on primary voters instead of straw polls.

“If you work your butt off and still lose these straw polls, that looks really bad,” said Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon. A loss after little effort “takes the edge off a little bit.”